US-China Relations

Last week, I attended a talk hosted by the World Affairs Council featuring David Firestein, President and Chief Executive Officer at The George H. W. Bush Foundation for U.S.-China Relations. The conversation focused on the state of US-China relations and how the dynamic between the two powerhouses is evolving.

Here’s what I learned:

What’s Happening

Tensions between the United States and China have grown in almost every area: trade, technology, security, and global influence. Once seen as potential partners, the two countries now view each other as rivals. Programs like USAID, Voice of America, and Fulbright have been shut down, marking the end of an era of open exchange. The U.S. is also working to pull China out of global supply chains, and both sides are locked in a struggle over who will lead the international order.

Assumptions

For years, U.S. policymakers made several assumptions about China, most of which have turned out to be wrong.

1. China used to be viewed as a partner but is now treated as an enemy.

2. China was seen as a major power that didn’t want to replace the U.S., but now it does.

3. China no longer supports the U.S.-led world order.

4. The U.S. believed engagement would normalize China.

5. Collaboration was thought to benefit both sides, but now interdependence is seen as a risk.

6. Partnership was once viewed as mutually beneficial, but currently now it’s a zero-sum game.

7. Moderate policies were seen as effective. Today, however the U.S. takes a hardline stance in an attempt to take back control.

What We’re Seeing Now

China’s society remains closed, with information tightly controlled and the government shaping what people see and hear. At the same time, Chinese universities are starting to attract more international students, a sign of growing global influence. China’s leaders plan decades ahead, while the U.S. often shifts direction with each new administration. Ironically, the U.S. economy is starting to look a bit more like China’s, with nationalism, protectionism, and a growing sense of “patriotism over profits.”

From Beijing’s perspective, America looks divided and distracted, focused on the wrong issues while China pushes forward. That belief has made China feel vindicated in its choices and more confident about its future. Meanwhile, the U.S. trade war ended up hurting American consumers and failed to reduce deficits. Under both Trump and Biden, America has recorded its largest merchandise trade gaps with China. Human rights issues have also worsened: the persecution of Uyghurs, the fall of Hong Kong’s autonomy, and rising aggression toward Taiwan have all escalated. Alongside that, China’s military continues to expand rapidly, giving it new leverage on the global stage.

What’s Next

The United States needs a strategy that’s less emotional and more grounded in reality. Current policies are still based on outdated assumptions that no longer match China’s ambitions or behavior. Instead of trying to isolate China, America should compete more intelligently by focusing on economic issues and less on social issues. That means using trade and comparative advantage rather than tariffs and retaliation, which only raise costs at home. It also means investing in innovation, education, and global partnerships that give the U.S. a long-term edge.